Friday, December 22, 2006

are you ready for some football?

If you're a football fan, this is the best time of the year. NFL playoff seedings are shaking out, and we are almost to the point when we will get to see some college bowl games that actually feature good teams. I love football, so let's talk about some really important football stuff!

Question: Which of the following NFL quarterbacks has played the best over the years in the postseason?
A. Joe Montana
B. Peyton Manning
C. John Elway
D. Brett Favre

Would you believe both A and B--Manning and Montana? I didn't, until I looked at the stats. In my opinion, the 3 most important quarterback statistics are passing yards per attempt, completion percentage, and TD passes per interception. Take a look at www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Article.php?Page=889 for an explanation of yards per attempt, and why it is probably the most important passing stat there is. Completion percentage is important too, because passes that don't get caught don't move the chains. TD passes per interception is a crucial stat as well. As important as it is to throw touchdowns, it is twice as important not to throw interceptions. Turnovers give the other team extra possessions. It's impossible to win in the NFL without winning the turnover battle. Interceptions kill! Compare the postseason numbers:
Manning: 7.64 yds/attempt---60% completion---1.87 TD passes per interception
Montana: 7.88 yds/attempt---63% completion---2.14 TD passes per interception
Elway: 7.63 yds per attempt---55% completion---1.28 TD passes per interception
Favre: 7.39 yds. per attempt---60% completion---1.31 TD passes per interception

All four are impressive, but Manning and Montana are a notch higher than the other two. Seeing Joe Montana's numbers didn't surprise me, but Manning's numbers did. Don't all of the genius sports pundits say that Manning "cuts and runs" in big games? Doesn't everybody know that Manning can't play big in big games? Not so fast my friend, to quote a lame-brained ex-IU football coach-turned ESPN commentator! The numbers say that Manning is every bit as good as Joe Montana in the postseason. Unfortunately, the Colts employ the Mormon Tabernacle Choir on defense, so the Manning-led offense doesn't get as many possessions as other teams do. If the Colt's defense could make the opposition work just a little bit harder (see explanation of "Bendability Index" at www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Article.php?Page=988), Manning will get a Super Bowl Ring. By the way, do you remember the big controversy several years ago when Rush Limbaugh said that Donovan McNabb was overrated? Here are McNabb's numbers: 6.27 yds per attempt---59% completion---1.5 TD passes per interception. Maybe Limbaugh should have gotten a raise, instead of being fired!

Now, a little college football talk. Here are my picks for each of the BCS games (http://www.bcsfootball.org/bcsfootball/):
Rose Bowl-- USC by 3 over Michigan
Fiesta Bowl-- Oklahoma by 7 over Boise State (welcome to the bigs, Broncos!)
Orange Bowl-- Louisville by at least 2 TD over Wake Forest
Sugar Bowl-- LSU by as many as they want over Notre Dame! I will be crying real tears at the end of that game!
National Championship-- Florida by 1 over Ohio State! Remember, you heard it here first!
These picks are for entertainment purposes only. Do not wager real money on these outcomes, unless it excites you to do so. Remember Art Schlichter! www.buckeyeplanet.com/forum/showthread.php?t=7954

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